# Tummy Shield: how the model works

Everything in the strategy report comes from this chain. Written so you or your own AI assistant can pull it apart.

## The inputs you should know are guesses

- **Hire length is projected at 4 months.** A conservative read of second trimester to birth. Shopify subscriptions will replace it.
- **Orders per click is a small sample:** 32 orders on 1,887 visits, using Analytics sessions as a stand-in for clicks.
- **Search Console recorded 242 of 366 days,** so recorded clicks are scaled by 366/242 = 1.5124.
- **The winnable share (0.20) and long tail (1.35) are our standard assumptions.**
- **Two inputs could pull the mid case down to about A$8,500:** Australian search hires average A$36.10 on their first payment in Analytics against the A$60 list price, and scaling the missing Search Console months by Analytics organic visits gives 1.673 instead of 1.5124.
- **Shopify is not connected.** Refunds, true hire length and customer counts will move these numbers, either way.

## Demand (Australia)

3,530 core searches a month (median of Keyword Planner, SEMrush and DataForSEO, 172 keywords) x 1.35 long tail x 12 = 57,186 searches a year.
x 0.20 winnable = 11,437 organic clicks a year.

## Today

Search Console, Australia, recorded clicks: 2,483.
Own brand 1,086, competitor brand 95, both removed.
Named non-branded 351 + anonymised 951 = 1,302.
x 1.5124 = 1,969 a year, which is 17.2% of the pool.

## Value of a click

Orders per click: 32 / 1,887 = 0.017.
Hire share: 114 hires, 14 purchases = 89.1% hire.
Purchase price measured in Analytics: A$744.91.
First order: hire share x A$60 + purchase share x A$744.91 = A$134.91.
Customer value (projected): hire share x A$60 x 4 + purchase share x A$744.91 = A$295.22.
The refundable deposit is left out of both.
Value per click: A$2.29 first order, A$5.01 customer.

## The cases

| Case | Share | Clicks / yr | Customers / yr | First-order revenue | First-year value | New value on today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 17.2% | 1,969 | 33 | A$4,505 | A$9,858 | A$0 |
| Conservative | 25.0% | 2,859 | 48 | A$6,541 | A$14,313 | A$4,455 |
| Mid | 35.0% | 4,003 | 68 | A$9,158 | A$20,041 | A$10,183 |
| High | 45.0% | 5,147 | 87 | A$11,776 | A$25,768 | A$15,910 |

All non-branded, gross, Australian. Customer value is projected. Three-year value equals first-year value because a customer buys once per pregnancy.

## United States and United Kingdom

Sized only, never priced. Head-term volume runs at 4.8 and 2.2 times Australia's. The pool is Australia's scaled by that ratio; today's share comes from Search Console on the same method; the mid case applies the same 2.03 times lift as Australia.
Organic search turned 6,828 US visits into 11 purchases, against 4,598 and 136 in Australia, and the hire model is Australian, so Australian value per click would overstate them.

## Scorecard

Total 41 of 100: Technical 15, Content 12, Authority 9, Measurement 5. Evidence is in Appendix B of the report.